Why Smart Punters Look at Handicapping Pace

December 7, 2013 By Leave a Comment

As promised, we wanted to dig more into the world of horse racing, and more into handicapping specifically. It’s quite possible to end up not handling handicapping the way you should. We understand that there’s a lot of data to process. you might not know where to really begin. But if you really want to dominate the racetrack in good time, you have to start looking at pace form a more serious point of view.

Can you use software to make pace handicapping easier? Absolutely — but you don’t want to do this right away. Like most things, it’s better to know how to do it manually. That way if you ever have to get things going on your own, you’re still going to be just fine. Some people rely so much on software that they really don’t understand the mechanics of what they’re dealing with. That’s a good way to lose money over the long run. Keep in mind that while software is definitely helpful, it can’t turn you into something that you aren’t. It can’t turn you into a super profitable, bettor that can see a good horse from a mile away. You have to do the research and put in the time — just like all of the other successful gamblers. Anybody can get lucky and bet form the gut a few times, winning small here and there. But you’re going to have to treat this almost like a lifestyle in terms of how much time you’re really willing to give to it. Some people can’t handle that, and that’s perfectly okay. It’s better to know your limits than not.

Anyway, moving back to pace handicapping. Pace covers the entire race as a whole. You need to try to figure out which horse can easily overtake the others, which horse is fast enough to keep up, and how hard is each horse really going to work. As you might imagine, these are some pretty tough questions to answer. You’ll get better at answering them and making educated guesses. Did we mention guesses? Yes, it’s true — you have to guess based on what you know. But that’s still an educated guess. You’re taking time to do the research into something that interests you.

Handicapping Pace

However, it still gets even deeper than our little overview. Smart punters get into handicapping pace because it allows them the proverbial 50,000 foot tower view of everything that’s going on. This is something that you have to work up to, but it’s completely worth it in the long run. Some people feel that they would be better served by looking at other numbers. That’s a bit misleading — you have to pull data from a lot of sources in order to really understand a horse’s pace. It also helps if you’ve seen the horse actually compete. There are times where the commentators are indeed wrong, or the horse shows a little more fire than expected later on. You just never know until you start looking into things further for yourself. There’s nothing wrong with knowing where you want to go, and even realizing that you have limits in place.

One of the top factors to look at when it comes to pace would have to be running style for each and every horse that you have your eye on. This is also where watching the replays really comes in. You have to look at some past performances in order to get the historical data you need. [Read more...]

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Free Horse Picks Are Still Chugging Along – But Take Caution

November 12, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Here’s something that I think we can all agree on: don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. Still, does this extend to the world of free horse picks? Some say that this is the case, while others feel that it’s really not anything to worry about. You see, horse picking is something that’s personal. Would you tell another man what type of woman he should be interested in? I didn’t think so!

The truth is that not all horse picks will be generated in the same way. You have to really know the site and know the people that are publishing the information. We can look at horses all day, but we may come to a different conclusion as to how far to take things when it comes to the way that horse performs. Yes, there are some people that just bet from the gut. And that’s okay. They will take random horse picks and run with the ball. But if you’re trying to get into the business of horse handicapping, there’s a lot of data that you need to pour over.

I’m not going to insult the many hard working men and women that put together horse picks. They often take a long time to come to their conclusions, and they should be rewarded for that. However, just as some people take a lot of time to come to their own conclusions, there are some that don’t take enough time to come up with logical picks.

Horse Picks

If you’re getting serious about horse betting to the point where you want the best picks, you’re most likely going to have to spend some money. It’s the best way to get the attention of the community as well. If you’re someone that’s super serious about the game and you’re willing to invest, you won’t find too many to tell you that you’re out of your mind.

The truth here is that you need to seriously consider investing in this like you would anything else that you’re interested in. The more data that you can get your hands on, the better decisions that you’ll make. However, just because I’m telling you that doesn’t mean that you need to run out and get the worst data that you can lay your hands on. That just wouldn’t make any sense at all.

Horse racing is something that has a long tradition. Some people will be able to jump right into the game and make some good bets, while others will need assistance. It’s okay if you need a little more help than the average bear. We have you covered!

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Sports Gambling Sites Leave You With Plenty of Ways to Get In On the Action

November 7, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Watching the big game is one thing, but being able to bet on it is another. If you want to take your experience of the game to the next level, betting on it is a great way to do just that. Of course, you will definitely want to find a secure site that you can really use to your advantage. Different types of bets should be no problem for the numerous sports gambling sites out there, but you might be surprised.

The trouble with newcomers to the world of sports gambling is that they worry that there’s no way to actually get the bet placed and win real money. Everything seems fake and out of reach. However, that’s only the first glance. If you were to dig deeper, you’d realize that sports gambling sites really are there to make your life a lot easier than you expected. Instead of trying to settle bets with your friends by hand, you get to let the site take care of all of that for you.

Sports Gambling

You get to just focus on the entertainment aspect, which is the best part of the experience. Gambling is a bit of a rush and definitely a thrill. You don’t have to even bet that much in order to win money. You just need to make sure that you’re looking at the different bets and seeing what bets you want to make on all of the teams that matter most to you. Do you want to make sure that you’re going to be able to bet on your favorite team? The sport doesn’t really matter — but your passion certainly does.

Don’t give in to fear when you can really make all of these different bets pay off. It’s just a matter of looking at the site that you really want to check out. Most sites will even give you a bit of free money to use as a new player, so you can make your bets with a bit of the “house money”. What more could you really ask for, honestly?

If you want to have something to talk about as you watch the big games on TV, there’s nothing better than making sure that you place your bets before all of the action starts. What good is watching the game, after all, if you can’t get your bragging rights? Start today!

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Factors that can affect the bet

September 24, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Do you want to bet on soccer? You might have a favorite team. Who doesn’t? However, favoring one team might not be the best strategy for any bettor. If you cannot stick to one team, then how can you make a proper bet? It all becomes complicated from here on but you do not have to feel desperate and hopeless about it. Just learn these tips and you are on your way to success.

The team form
How was the team in the past match? Who was their opponent last time? What happened? Did the star player get injured? Were they able to score? Did they have a hard time playing? You might want to read the previous reports on the match to see how it went. All these can affect possibilities for winning or losing.

http://www.dreamstime.com/-image858983

Schedule
The amount of games they played within the week can affect their form in the following week or so. Who were their competitors in the previous weeks? Who will they battle in the following days? The schedule can help you uncover how the team might perform given the clues from their previous games and maybe their history playing against that particualr team. Them again, these are all hunches so you cannot say that they will result to how you predicted it.

Home and away score
there are some players that perform better in their home country and there are some that perform well when traveling to other places. It could be the change in culture, fewer fans, or pressures and other factors. It is very important to look at how they perform and see if they have unique patterns in their wins, draws and losses. This could ultimately affect you betting.

The motivation of the team.
Are they likely to be focused on international games compared to local league? The motivations of the players can determine the overall results of the game.

As you can see, betting on soccer online can be as  challenging and complicated. It requires dedication and real passion for the sport. You may not be a fan of a certain team but by acknowledging their skill and potential to win, you can use their win as your advantage to get better betting results.

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Investing Money Into Sophisticated Horse Picking Systems

August 26, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Are you trying to get better results when you step up to bet on all of the big horse races? You’re not alone. But if you’re new to the world of horse handicapping, it really can seem like a lot of work. It just feels like it would make a lot more sense if you could figure out a different system, or even borrow someone else’s system.

Investing money into sophisticated horse picks can be tricky. Just about everyone is offering horse picks these days, and it means that you’re going to have to be careful before you really get too deep into things like this. It’s up to you to make sure that you’re thinking about whether you’re going to make a return on your investment.

Horse Picking Systems

Think about the type of money that you have to spend on horse betting to begin with. If you’re not a big player yet, you really don’t need to do horse picks from a service. The reason why we say it that way is because it’s very easy to think that you’re going to be getting into a world that leads to instant profits, but that’s not the case either. You have to think about how much money you stand to win before you buy horse picks every day.

You also want to think about the source. If the people you’re buying the picks from aren’t seasoned handicappers, then what’s the point? The whole pint of buying picks is to avoid doing the work. Yet this is short sighted. “The work” in this case leads to the money, and you like money. Otherwise, why bet at all?

There’s a certain thrill in mastering horse handicapping. Sure, it’s not something that you can learn overnight, but what really is the right thing to do, when you really think about it? You owe it to yourself to figure out just about everything there is to know about horse handicapping. If you want to invest in a service, well…it’s your money.

We don’t think these services are always a good thing. If you’re going to do this, you want to make sure that you’re going with a service that truly raises the bar in terms of what to expect. That’s just the way it is, so make sure that you’re looking through all of your options. Of course, there are some free picks available, if you want to cut your teeth on those. You can always choose a premium service later when you feel more confident. Good luck out there!

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Sabermetrics – Why It Can Change Your Baseball Betting

August 20, 2013 By Leave a Comment

You might hear the word “sabermetrics” and wonder what it is. On the other hand, you might know exactly what it is, and feel that it has really nothing to do with baseball betting. It’s true that you could probably go your entire day without really needing to know anything about sabermetics and still have a great run of baseball betting. But if you’re trying to get to the next level, you really need to discover the overlap between sabermetrics and baseball betting.

In short, it’s simple: you have a whole group of people that use baseball statistics to derive theories. Trying to figure out who’s faster than who? That’s under sabermetrics, baby. What about if you really want to see how effective a player is in relation to a team? Again, that’s sabermetrics. There’s even a whole society devoted to it — the Society for American Baseball Research.

baseball

Keep in mind that sabermetrics yields something that you need as a baseball handicapper: data. Being able to see data in more ways than one is something that’s downright necessary. If you want to make sure that you’re really getting the type of gains that you need to get in terms of profitability, you can’t go wrong with baseball betting. That’s just the way it is.

You also want to look at getting more into the statistics. This is the dry and dull part of the game that people don’t like. However, I love statistics. I think that numbers are a way to unlock things that you might not think about behind your favorite players. Sure, you can flip on any television and you’ll get sports commentary but those guys are there to basically throw you off. You absolutely know what’s right, and you absolutely know what’s wrong. You might as well do something that’s going to really make you more likely to win with baseball betting.
Don’t just leave it to being a bunch of dry numbers. Getting your hands on past baseball coverage is definitely a good thing. If your friends record old games, you should totally ask them if you can watch the archives with them as a way to get things settled. It’s completely up to you, but we really think that it’s worth it to look through options like this. Looking at the way players actually play tends to bring you interesting insights.

Keep these points in mind before you make your next bet. It could seriously change your reasoning on all wagers if you allow it!

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Everyone Can Do a 1-Run Line – Really!

July 17, 2013 By Leave a Comment

If you’re trying to handle your baseball betting options, you might hear talk about creating a 1-Run Line. This isn’t something that’s going to be very difficult. It can help you maximize your profits as you play the big games, and we think that this is definitely a good thing.

If you’re trying to push bigger profits, the 1-run line is where it’s at. What you do is basically make a bet that your favored team isn’t going to cause you to lose money. Instead of a bet where your team would cost you money, you basically get a “push” — no money lost, but no money won either.

Here’s how you set it up. You are basically making two bets. The first bet is with the moneyline, and the second bet is with the runline.

MLB: Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

You take your favored team and put down a -1 run. The second bet is going to be where you put down 1.5 runs.

Sportsbooks are always adjusting their odds, and they’ll take into account a lot of different factors. One factor is whether the “top team” to win is going to be at their home field or if they’re visiting another team’s home field. They’ll also take in sentiment the crowd feels about all parties involved. If you’ve got a team that’s really hot to win, the odds might not be as good as you were hoping.

Look at your odds and then see how you want to set everything up. The money line has to cover the run line wager — this is the most important fact. Everything else can be just fine, but you have to make sure that you’re thinking about how things are really going to go. Don’t give up and think that you can’t get things done. You just need to figure out how you’re going to connect everything together. Good luck!

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How to Make the Most Gains in Sports Betting

July 7, 2013 By Leave a Comment

If you want to minimise your losses when you are betting on sports, then there are number of things that you can do. It is wise to consider it before you do bet, making sure that you only spend what you can afford to lose, just in case.

Reduce the Risk

It can be a good idea to bet on something that is not too risky. If you take more risk, then you can possibly gain more, but you stand more chance of losing. If you want to maximise your chances of winning anything, then look at the odds and bet on the thing that has the most chance of winning. If you want a big prize, then you may need to take more risk or bet more money though. You will have to decide what you are more comfortable with.

Spread the Bets

It can be a good idea to bet on more than one thing. Perhaps more than one horse in a race, for example. This will increase your chances of winning something. Of course, the more money you bet, the higher your prize, so again it is up to you to look at the risk and decide whether you want to take a higher risk and possibly win more or a lower risk and just win something.

Sports Betting

Learn About the Contenders

It is good to study the contenders in the sport and decide who you think has the best chance of winning based on their form. It makes sense to bet on the one that seems to have the most chance of doing well. However, it is likely that most people will bet on them and so the odds will be set so that if they do win, you will not gain so much money.

Look at the Odds

The odds tell you what other people feel the result will be. You will get less money back on the favourite result as that is what is most likely to happen. The bookmakers work it out so that they will still make a gain (well they hope so anyway!) It is likely that the favourite to win, will do so and so by betting on them you are most likely to win, but the amount you win may not be so high.

Bet for Free

Free betting can be a great way to make money because you are paying out nothing. Take a look at www.freebets.org.uk to find out more about where you can place a free bet.

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NBA Betting : Sports Betting Formulas

June 21, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Well, I decided to mess with some formula betting today in the NBA since it was a short schedule (3 games). The result so far is 2 for 2 and the third game is playing. I normally would not bring up formula betting, but it’s a common thing with people who use computer predicting programs. I think a formula can help aid the sports handicapping process, but it should not be used solely. Who’s to say that today’s basketball betting formula will work tomorrow? Ok, let’s take a peak at this NBA sports betting formula to see what it entails.

Before I continue, let me say that developing a sports betting formula that “would” have won X games in the past is worth as much as the acid rain from the sky. No good sports bettor cares about what “would” have happened. We only care about what will happen. Yes, I have spent hundreds of hours coming up will all sorts of formulas. Some are good aids, many are garbage. A common scenario will be you developing a great formula that would have won 61% of the games in the past. You would get excited and go bet the full schedule tomorrow only to watch your prized formula win 35% of the games. Figuring it’s a fluke, you try again and again. Finally, one week later you realize that your 30-40% is as good as it gets. The point is, don’t rely on some “computerized” formula to predict real flesh and blood life.

NBA Betting

Ok, here’s the basic formula I used tonight. I will use the Boston (+9) at Miami game as my example.

  1. Total up the last 5 offensive and defensive point totals and average them out. Boston’s offensive average was 97.6 points and their defensive average was 100.4 points. Miami’s offensive average was 109.8 points and their defensive average was 100.6 points.
  2. Next, I look at their season averages for offense and defense. Boston’s season averages were: 98.2 O and 99.9 D. Miami was 101.2 O and 96.5 D.
  3. Now I take the season averages and average them into the step 1 averages. This gave me the following numbers: Boston’s offense: 97.9 points Boston’s defense: 100.15 points Miami’s offense 105.5 points Miami’s defense 98.55 points.
  4. It’s now time to simulate a match up by adding Boston’s offensive average together with Miami’s defensive average and vise versa. We now have the estimated score: Boston: 98.2 Miami 102.8
  5. According to this, Miami should be a 4.5 favorite and the total should be around 201.

Upon review of today’s NBA basketball line at the sportsbook, I found that the Boston Celtics were a 9 point underdog, which is two times my formula’s estimation. Since this was just a fun test, I bet the Celtics +9, which was a winner.

My second game, using this NBA betting formula, predicted the following outcome: Seattle 102.4 Philly 101.4 (total 203.8). Looking at the NBA basketball line, I found that Philly was a 7 point dog, so I bet em. The game just went final as of the start of this writing. Final Score: Seattle: 102 Philly:98 — Another win.

My last game, which is still in progress, is between Minnesota and Golden State. The NBA basketball formula predicted the score would be: Minnesota: 99 Golden State: 97 (197 total). Since Minnesota was a 7 point dog, I bet them. With about one minute to go in the third quarter, Minnesota is down by 8. Even if they drop the ball, two out of three is not bad.

I will run the formula against tomorrow’s full slate and expand further on what games were selected. I will post early so you can read well before the games start.

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