Well, I decided to mess with some formula betting today in the NBA since it was a short schedule (3 games). The result so far is 2 for 2 and the third game is playing. I normally would not bring up formula betting, but it’s a common thing with people who use computer predicting programs. I think a formula can help aid the sports handicapping process, but it should not be used solely. Who’s to say that today’s basketball betting formula will work tomorrow? Ok, let’s take a peak at this NBA sports betting formula to see what it entails.
Before I continue, let me say that developing a sports betting formula that “would” have won X games in the past is worth as much as the acid rain from the sky. No good sports bettor cares about what “would” have happened. We only care about what will happen. Yes, I have spent hundreds of hours coming up will all sorts of formulas. Some are good aids, many are garbage. A common scenario will be you developing a great formula that would have won 61% of the games in the past. You would get excited and go bet the full schedule tomorrow only to watch your prized formula win 35% of the games. Figuring it’s a fluke, you try again and again. Finally, one week later you realize that your 30-40% is as good as it gets. The point is, don’t rely on some “computerized” formula to predict real flesh and blood life.
Ok, here’s the basic formula I used tonight. I will use the Boston (+9) at Miami game as my example.
- Total up the last 5 offensive and defensive point totals and average them out. Boston’s offensive average was 97.6 points and their defensive average was 100.4 points. Miami’s offensive average was 109.8 points and their defensive average was 100.6 points.
- Next, I look at their season averages for offense and defense. Boston’s season averages were: 98.2 O and 99.9 D. Miami was 101.2 O and 96.5 D.
- Now I take the season averages and average them into the step 1 averages. This gave me the following numbers: Boston’s offense: 97.9 points Boston’s defense: 100.15 points Miami’s offense 105.5 points Miami’s defense 98.55 points.
- It’s now time to simulate a match up by adding Boston’s offensive average together with Miami’s defensive average and vise versa. We now have the estimated score: Boston: 98.2 Miami 102.8
- According to this, Miami should be a 4.5 favorite and the total should be around 201.
Upon review of today’s NBA basketball line at the sportsbook, I found that the Boston Celtics were a 9 point underdog, which is two times my formula’s estimation. Since this was just a fun test, I bet the Celtics +9, which was a winner.
My second game, using this NBA betting formula, predicted the following outcome: Seattle 102.4 Philly 101.4 (total 203.8). Looking at the NBA basketball line, I found that Philly was a 7 point dog, so I bet em. The game just went final as of the start of this writing. Final Score: Seattle: 102 Philly:98 — Another win.
My last game, which is still in progress, is between Minnesota and Golden State. The NBA basketball formula predicted the score would be: Minnesota: 99 Golden State: 97 (197 total). Since Minnesota was a 7 point dog, I bet them. With about one minute to go in the third quarter, Minnesota is down by 8. Even if they drop the ball, two out of three is not bad.
I will run the formula against tomorrow’s full slate and expand further on what games were selected. I will post early so you can read well before the games start.