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Soccer betting – Asian Handicaps

The most popular form of soccer betting is the win-draw-win or 1×2, which has players picking one of three possible outcomes and wagering money on it. If the outcome of the game matches the player’s choice, he wins. If it doesn’t, he loses. The only problem with this setup is – and this will probably be obvious straight away for US bettors – that out of the three possible outcomes, two favor the house, and only one backs the bettor. The bottom line: the odds are not exactly favorable for the bettor, as a matter of fact, a savvy US bettor wouldn’t really get his money into the middle on such a proposition. Enter the Asian handicap. This type of soccer betting originates from Asia, hence its name. Though it is nowhere near as popular as the win-draw-win (the bulk of the betting public is obviously intimidated by the weird name and the unknown structure behind it), the Asian handicap offers the bettor much better odds. Once you get the basics of the Asian handicap you’ll realize it’s actually extremely simple and due to the better odds that’s probably all you’ll ever want to use.

The first step is to understand how the Asian handicap works. Only by truly understanding the mechanism at work will you be able to take advantage of it, just placing Asian handicap bets for the heck of it is not the way to go.

The Asian handicap eliminated one of the three possible outcomes featured by 1X2 betting. The draw is no longer an option with the Asian Handicap. You bet on either team A to win or team B. The whole setup is similar to the spread betting used in football and basketball: one of the teams starts out with a handicap, meaning that – because it is more likely to win on account of the superior collective skills of the players – it’ll start anywhere from a quarter goal to several goals down. If you bet on the favorite, it basically needs to cover that handicap for you to win. If the underdog prevents the favorite from covering the handicap, you lose. If you bet on the underdog and it loses by less than the “handicap” given to the favorite, you win the bet.

Though the betting mechanism at work in Asian Handicaps is extremely simple, finding ways to win is extremely tricky. Proper handicapping becomes more important than ever, because the nature of the sport you bet on. You may pick a favorite to cover a spread which you consider to be a decent one knowing the strengths of the two teams involved, only to find that the favorite isn’t exactly motivated and it settles for a marginal win, saving its key players for more important confrontations.

The way to find value in Asian Handicaps is a lot like the way you find value in the basketball or football lines. The bookmaker needs to balance every game he offers through the handicap (he aims to get bettors onto both sides, in a relatively equal proportion). He needs to do that so he can collect his vigorish (aka juice), risk-free. The juice works just like the poker rake does in online poker, with the difference that while in poker you can recover your rake through rakeback in Asian Handicap betting you can’t really do the same.

As he balances his games by means of the spread, the bookie may be forced to perform line movements he wouldn’t normally perform. The reason for such line movements is the money, more of which may come in on one side than on the other.

Sports betting bankroll management

By Tyron

If you’re a poker player, you probably know how important bankroll management is in the game’s long-term balance. You secure EV+ through proper strategy, skills and rakeback deals. You then have to make sure that the EV+ (positive expected value) gets a chance to surface to start earning money for you.

The very same thing goes for sports betting. You need a decent bankroll and you need to learn exactly how much you can bet on an individual game in order not to endanger your bankroll.

Here’s an example to illustrate how the EV+ works and why you need to manage your bankroll.

In order to secure EV+ in a game, you need to be able to reverse-handicap games, track lines and find the hidden value. When you do find it, and you take advantage of it, the hidden value will give you an edge of a couple of percents over the bookie, whose vig/juice (a commission which is a lot like the rake in poker) would otherwise place him way out of your reach odds-wise. Those few percents of positive EV do not guarantee you anything, especially not in the short-run. In the long-run, they do in fact guarantee that you’ll walk away a winner, but for that, you’ll have to be around for the long-run.

The bottom line is: even if you’re capable of securing EV+ where most bettors can’t, it won’t do you much good if you fail to manage your bankroll properly.

Enough small-talk though: how much should you post on any given game then to make sure your bankroll exists for long enough to see the EV+ kick in for you?

Regardless of the actual size of your bankroll, you should never post more than 2-3% of it on any given game. Of course, there will be special games you’ll feel extremely strongly about. On such games – in order to maximize your profits – you can go as high as 5% but NEVER more than that.

The reasoning behind the numbers is simple: if you bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any one game, you’re practically guaranteed to run out of money if you hit around 54-58%. If you post less on every match-up though, your bankroll will survive and you will make money using this strategy.

The potential problems with this setup are obvious, and they’re mostly discipline related ones. Every sports bettor has a tendency to become greedy when he hits a winning streak. Why not bet more and risk more if you feel you’re going to end up with the win anyway? The temptation is certainly there but cold-hard math tells you not to give in to it. Just stick to your 2-5% and don’t waver.

The weird thing about successful sports betting is that winning feels a lot like losing. Even as a winner, you’ll have to accept the fact that you lose a lot. It has nothing to do with the exhilaration of hitting the jackpot in a casino, there’s nothing glamorous about it. Much like in online poker, winning’s about putting in tons and tons of hard work and then settling for the fact that a lot of the time you will lose even when you’re 100% certain you’ve delivered your best. Don’t chase your losses trying to fight losing weeks. You can’t fight losing streaks, you can only create the impression that you’re fighting at a great cost. Just ride along and accept the fact that losing streaks do happen. Never forget: winning feels pretty much like losing in sports betting. Don’t chase that “feeling like a winner” thing, you will not find it here.

Football Betting and the Value of Reverse Handicapping

By Tyron

Reverse handicapping. What exactly is it supposed to be? Plain handicapping is about the analysis of various game–related factors and their influence on the possible outcome of the game. While absolutely necessary, straightforward handicapping is seldom enough to give a sports-bettor a lasting EV+ edge. All squares do straight handicapping. How good they’re at it is an entirely different question, but as far as the scope of this article is concerned, that is quite irrelevant.

The bottom line is that your straight handicapping is not going to take you far, and it will most likely only get you to post your money on the square side of each bet.

Successful sports bettors know that straight handicapping, the understanding of the vig and the ability to read the lines are not enough to make sports betting profitable. Something called reverse handicapping is also needed. Reverse handicapping consists in the tracking of the line movements, with the full understanding of the factors that lead to those movements. In order to understand why the lines move at all, one needs to understand the MO of the bookmaker.

The bookmaker is always looking to make a risk-free dollar, and towards that end, he aims to balance every single match-up it offers as close to perfection as possible. Why is this balancing act needed? Suppose an X number of players get their monies into the middle on one side of a match-up, and a Y number on the other. If X is approximately equal to Y, the bookie can pay all the winners with the money dropped by the losers and keep the vig. It’s as simple as that. Of course, a perfect balance is quite impossible to achieve, but there are limits which the bookie is willing to cover from his own pockets/the vig. Anything that falls outside of those limits prompts a movement of the lines. Because he’s moving his lines on account of square pressure and not on account of actual facts that modify the base data of the match-up, the bookmaker will leave extra value on the other side of the bet. Good sport bettors call this the “hidden value” and they’re quite adept at finding and exploiting it.

As you can see, the above theory is pretty simple. The actual tracking of the lines/reverse handicapping is much more difficult, I’d even go as far as to call it daunting. The problem is that a movement of the lines can result from a variety of causes. Side notes can be a reason. Side notes are injuries, travel issues, suspensions and a bunch of other factors that do indeed impact the performance of a team. Any line movements caused by such factors are fully justified and therefore they never induce hidden value.

Another reason for line movements is smart money. This is quite probably the toughest to spot. Smart money is obviously the opposite of square money: it is money coming in from gambling syndicates or groups of professional players and it too can cause movements in the line.

As you can see, turning your sports betting into a long term EV+ activity is not exactly a simple achievement. You need to pull out all stops to beat the vig. In online poker, the rake is pretty much the same as the vig in sports betting. Players can combat the poker rake through rakeback deals though and thus they don’t need to consider a hundred different variables when looking to beat the house’s share of the action.

Sports betting and reverse handicapping

By Tyron

Being a successful handicapper will certainly offer you an edge in your sports gambling, but will that be enough to make you a long-term winner? Not exactly. You see, being a successful sports bettor is not only about understanding the sport that you’re betting on perfectly and being able to dissect each and every single match-up right down to the bone. That too is needed but it’s not enough by a long-shot. A sharp sports bettor understands the way the bookmaker works and he is just as good a reverse handicapper as he’s a straight one. Why is it essential to see matchups and lines from the other side of the barricade? Because that’s just about the only way you’ll be able to locate hidden value and thus to secure positive long term EV (expected value).

Believe it or not, square sports betting is a negative EV activity. You get your money in on the favorite and when the fav does come through for you, you win your money back plus almost as much on top of it (minus the vig of course). The vig acts the same way the poker rake does in online poker: it bites into your narrow margin mercilessly. In poker there are rakeback deals, in live sports betting there’s not much you can do about the vig. When you lose, you lose your money. On a perfectly balanced match-up (and believe you me, the bookie will do everything to balance the match-up as close to perfection as possible), that is pretty much the definition of negative long-term EV. There’s only one variable you can exploit to turn your negative EV into positive EV, and that’s the movement of the lines. Before we go any further though, we need to take a look at the reasons why the bookie moves his lines around.

Not all line movements mean hidden value. When the lines move on account of the side notes, then the movements are fully justified and they truthfully reflect the new situation arisen on the court/field. Side notes are player injuries, roster changes, travel problems, suspensions etc. Make sure the line does not move on account of the side notes before you jump all over the perceived hidden value.

Line movements which bring about hidden value are caused by bettor-pressure. Sometimes, square money will come in way too thick on one side of a match-up (usually on that of the favorite) and it will therefore upset the delicate balance achieved by the bookmaker. When the balance is upset, the bookie needs to compensate by moving his lines. He will make the less bet-on side of the match-up more attractive, mostly by inducing undue value to it. That there is the hidden value. The hidden value seldom lasts. Sharps (betting syndicates) may jump on it and erase it in a heartbeat, or the measure undertaken by the bookie may prove a little too successful and the other side of the bandwagon may fill up faster than projected.

The bottom line is that in order to be able to reap the benefits of these line movements, you pretty much need to monitor these movements on a constant basis. Weekly games are easier to track, because you have several days at your disposal to see how the line evolves. Daily games are more difficult to monitor because things speed up for them. The most important thing is to get the opening lines and to remember them, so you have a basis for comparison on subsequent lines. Track just a few games for starters, move up to more as soon as you feel you’re comfortable with what you’re able to handle.

Arbitrage Strategy for the bet365 4/1+ Feature Race Offers

By Tyron

My overall aim is to wait until I spot a good situation and then make both bets together. However, there will inevitably be a delay of a second or two between them.

In general, just before a race I prefer to back with bet365 first and then lay once I have seen the confirmation screen from them. That way my maximum exposure is kept to a minimum. Exchange prices go up and down all the time. Once the books have cut a price it is much less likely to return.

I also want to see alot of cash queuing up at the second and third best prices on the exchange in case the best price has disappeared before I have hit the “confirm” button.

When I look at the Early Prices in the morning I sometimes queue a speculative “lay price” first to see if anyone bites. But I will only do this if it is giving me a “proper arb”.

Your First Free SNR Bet (Stage 2)

OK, so you have followed my basic strategy and eventually your first winner arrives. Now, the first thing to remember is that your free bet goes on the very next race in the series. You don’t get a choice about which race. Use it or lose it.

• From bet365’s Home Page press the red “offers and promotions” button to see a chronological list of the offer races.
• Bet365 run two similar offers:4/1+ Feature Races and 4/1+ Channel Four Races. The Channel Four races are shown live on British TV every Saturday afternoon (and at selected race meetings during the week.) You can’t transfer your free bet between the two series. If your first winner is on a Feature Race, the free bet is on the next Feature race and if your winner is on a Ch4 race, your free bet goes on the next Ch4 race.

• During the week, the offer normally covers two races a day. There shouldn’t be any time pressure. On a Saturday, the Channel Four offer will cover seven or eight races from two or three courses. Sometimes the scheduled start times are only five minutes apart and when there are delays it can get pretty hectic.

Beginners beware!

Also, you must place this free bet using cash from your account. If it loses they will refund you (normally within one hour). But you must have enough cash in your account so that if they are late in settling the first winner you still have sufficient funds to place the “free bet”.

To make the best use of our Stake Not Returned Free Bet we should try to find a good match on a horse with odds of at least 7/1 (I hope to write an article showing the proof of this soon). We also need to adjust our lay stake so that we are underlaying compared to before.

• It is crucial to remember that we must now reduce our lay stake on the exchange. It is doing this that will guarantee us an overall profit
Its time to place our “free bet” and we see a likely-looking match. 8.00 (7/1) with bet365 8.50 (15/2) on the exchange. After a little tinkering with the spreadsheet we arrive at:

1.   If the horse loses our bet with bet365 will be refunded. So our profit will be the lay stake less commission. Start again at stage 1 for the next race
2.   If the horse wins we collect from bet365 as normal. But because we have reduced the amount laid on the exchange, we pay out less than we collect
3.   If the horse wins the only adjustment made to our bet365 account is to add our winnings. The free bet rolls on to the next race. Repeat stage 2
4.   Our profit from the race is X despite the fact that 8.00 and 8.50 is not an especially close match. The better the match the more profit it will deliver
5.   There is a case for laying slightly more than the amount shown in the picture to equalize the outcomes of winning and losing. Here, if the horse wins you get X and another free bet. If it loses you only get X.
6.   Our overall profit is X less any loss incurred on the first race. One or two winners a week should generate X/year [Read more…] about Arbitrage Strategy for the bet365 4/1+ Feature Race Offers

Bet365 4/1+ Feature Races

By Tyron

A Typical Match (Good but not Outstanding)

bet365 are offering 5.0 (4/1) on a horse which you can lay at 5.1 (4.1/1) on the exchange:

I pay 3% commission with Betmate so need to lay X there to cover a bet of X with bet365.
If the horse loses I breakeven (in fact make 1p due to rounding). When the horse wins I am down X but I get a free X bet on the next race.

A True Arb (An Excellent Match)

bet365 offer 7.0 (6/1) on a horse that can be laid at 6.7 (5.7/1)

This is the sort of situation I am really looking for. I have no downside at all (barring a deadheat or late non-runner) and have the flexibility to lay a few more pennies to balance my returns if I want. I also have bet365’s Best Odds Guarantee working for me so if the SP is returned at 13/2 or 7/1 (and the horse wins), then I will get an extra X or X profit on top.

A Marginal Match

bet365 offer 5.0 (4/1). I thought I could lay at 5.10 on the exchange. Unfortunately, the market moves against me whilst I am placing my bet. It’s just before the race and I bail out at 5.5 (9/2).

About 80% of the time in this situation the horse won’t win and I end up level. When it does win I will be in the position of needing to make X from the free bet to show an overall profit.

My experience has been that you can normally expect to recover at least X from your X SNR (Stake Not Returned) bet. So, in the long run, I will make a small profit here. Later on, I will discuss the best way to maximize the value of your free bets.

However, if the best prices available were 5.50 on the exchange, verses 5.00 at bet365 and I wasn’t yet committed to the race then I would pass here. You don’t have any margin of safety in this situation. [Read more…] about Bet365 4/1+ Feature Races